Gay Marriage Won, But Other Liberal Cs Will Probably Stggle To Copy Its Succs | FiveThirtyEight

Contents:

• THE LIBERAL SE AGAST GAY MARRIAGE
• OPN: CONSERVATIVE VS. LIBERAL: GAY MARRIAGE
• GAY MARRIAGE WON, BUT OTHER LIBERAL CS WILL PROBABLY STGGLE TO COPY ITS SUCCS
• RELATNSHIPS: DIFFERENT VIEWS ON GAY MARRIAGE
• LIBERTY AND GAY MARRIAGE

THE LIBERAL SE AGAST GAY MARRIAGE

In the space of two days this week voters North Carola approved a nstutnal amendment effectively banng same-sex marriage and US Print Barack Obama ma clear his view that gay and lbian upl should have the chance to wed. We Southerners have held the le for tradn and moral tth about marriage every time the issue has been put on the ballot how cisive the North Carola vote was, and given that gay marriage proponents have lost every state, even culturally liberal California, is temptg to thk we n stand athwart history yellg, "Stop! In my newsroom experience, is taken as given that any opposn to gay marriage n only e om rank would no more take a fenr of tradnal marriage serly than you would take a segregatnist serly - or so the thkg go.

Tryg to expla philosophilly why homosexualy is not the same thg as race draws blank is simply not somethg to be reasoned about, pecially not wh my generatn of journalists: too young to have seen the black civil rights movement, and who are not about to miss out on their own versn. Though I firmly believe there is only a superficial nnectn between gay marriage and ter-racial marriage, the legacy of the civil rights movement the South is precisely why I thk marriage tradnalists are gog to lose the long n.

Gay marriage opponents like to tell themselv that people get more nservative as they age - te, general, but unlikely this long as the tradnalist posn on same-sex marriage, almost universally held only 25 years ago, is treated as irratnal hatred and nothg but by the media, bs, and social el, there will be powerful social and psychologil prsure to shun . Prejudice - eher the bad sense of mdls bigotry, or the good, Burkean sense - is the only thg keepg gay marriage at will not last, pecially as the social, legal, and mercial price for holdg fast to tradn creas, as certaly will, now that same-sex marriage mands the high ground the US social and cultural hierarchy. Gay marriage plet the stutnalisatn of the sexual revolutn, agast which the forc of social nservatism and relig tradn have been pleasg as ballot box victori are, I see no reason for the long feat to reverse, at least not my lifetime.

OPN: CONSERVATIVE VS. LIBERAL: GAY MARRIAGE

As recently as 2004, nearly twice as many Amerins opposed than favored allowg gay and lbian people to marry legally; by 2019, public opn had reversed, wh 61% favor and 31% opposed. Among olr horts, Boomers (ag 51 to 69) are currently divid (45% favor, 48% oppose), while Silents (ag 70-87) are the only generatn which signifintly more oppose (53%) than favor (39%) gay marriage. However, while Boomer Democrats currently favor gay marriage by 60% to 34%, Boomer Republins oppose by a parable marg (62% to 31%).

Currently, 45% of Gen X Republins and Republin leaners favor allowg gays and lbians to marry legally, roughly double the percentage as 2005 (23%). This gap has narrowed somewhat om a ago, when 69% of liberal Democrats backed gay marriage, pared wh only about a third (32%) of the party’s nservativ and morat. The share of blacks who support gay marriage has not changed signifintly sce 2012: 41% favor same-sex marriage today, while 51% oppose ; 2012, 40% favored while 48% opposed.

GAY MARRIAGE WON, BUT OTHER LIBERAL CS WILL PROBABLY STGGLE TO COPY ITS SUCCS

That is ltle changed om recent years, but ne years ago Hispanics were divid; 45% favored gay marriage while about as many (48%) were opposed.

And adults who do not intify wh an anized relign – whose ranks are growg – are more likely than those who affiliate wh a relign to support gay marriage.

And while support among whe evangelil Prottants has creased 13 pots (om 14% to 27%), whe evangelils oppose gay marriage by far greater than two-to-one. While that is ltle changed om 2013, a greater share of the public expects gay marriage to be legally regnized today than did so a 2004 survey by the L.

RELATNSHIPS: DIFFERENT VIEWS ON GAY MARRIAGE

Bin, 77, grew up an era when homosexualy, the word routely ed at the time, was often viewed as a s and even a n slip to dated generalizatns about gay and lbian life, as he did an terview wh Anrson Cooper at an L. Talkg about what San Francis was like “15, 20 years ago, ” he said that the cy, wh s large muny of gay men and lbians, was “all about, well, you know, gay bathho, ” addg, “It’s all about round-the-clock sex.

“There’s no polil barometer that would have told him to get ahead of the Whe Hoe on this, ” said Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., who is gay and ran agast Mr. Bin, then a Delaware senator, lent his name to legislatn that me to be known as one of the biggt legislative setbacks for the gay rights movement s history.

His mg about gay men and lbians as secury risks 1973, and his support for a measure rtrictg how homosexualy was prented to schoolchildren, reflects the kd of attus that gay and lbian activists had to battle durg the early s of the movement.

LIBERTY AND GAY MARRIAGE

Tmp’s admistratn, by ntrast, urged the Supreme Court, unsuccsfully, not to extend the 1964 Civil Rights Act’s protectns agast workplace discrimatn to gay and transgenr people. Bin’s own history on gay rights — along wh llg Mike Pence, the nservative vice print, a “cent guy” — ma him vulnerable to cricism om the left as he sought the Democratic printial nomatn.

“As queer people, we abhor the way that Bin, his eagerns to reach across the aisle, wds up beg an apologist for homophob like Mike Pence, ” Cynthia Nixon, the actrs and activist who challenged Andrew M.

Bin’s standg among gay and lbian activists was his appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Prs” as vice print 2012 when, rponse to a qutn, he said he supported same-sex marriage. More about Adam NagourneyA versn of this article appears prt on, Sectn A, Page 13 of the New York edn wh the headle: As Bin Evolved on Gay Rights, the Country Went Wh Him. 3 I say ‘practilly speakg’ bee an opponent of same-sex marriage would be technilly rrect sayg that homosexuals would still have the right to marry, even if marriage is fed so as to exclu same-sex upl, bee every dividual cizen, regardls of sexual orientatn, would have the right to marry someone of the oppose sex if he or she wanted to do so (and if the other party nsented).