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class="dmnc_servic-theme-service-styl-flt-module__1fCbX lk-blue dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__Nsv0f le-block align-middle" href="/news/">news</a><svg xmlns=" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-lep="round" stroke-lejo="round" class="dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__MNwrx text-gray-medium in-le in-3"><path d="M9 18l6-6-6-6"></path></svg><a class="dmnc_servic-theme-service-styl-flt-module__1fCbX lk-blue dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__Nsv0f le-block align-middle" href="/news/polifact/">PoliFact</a></p><hgroup><h1 class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__pIlKM primaryBold primaryBold-60 md_primaryBold-80 mb-2"><span class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__i2K-Y mr-7">How many transgenr people are there the U.S.?</span></h1><h2 class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__sF01k sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-30 md_sendaryRoman-40 text-gray-dark">PoliFact | Surveys show that when asked, people overtimate what percentage of the populatn is transgenr, along wh other mory groups.</h2></hgroup></div></div><sectn class="dmnc_layouts-ntent-right-rail-wh-gap-module__gezss row lg_jtify-between lg_flex-nowrap"><div class="dmnc_layouts-ntent-right-rail-wh-gap-module__sZ7QP lumn small-12 large-expand xlarge-8"><figure class="dmnc_imag-featured-image-module__ASEZV borr-b borr-gray-light pb-3 mb-9"><div class="ar-imgContaer-wir_830 ar-imgContaer dmnc_imag-img-module__l2vrE bg-gray-light dmnc_imag-img-module__2TzDj w-full"><img width="1660" height="934" alt="Demonstrators gather on the steps to the Texas Capol to speak agast transgenr-related..." src="()/" class="dmnc_imag-img-module__-o1u- max-w-full text-whe object-nta dmnc_imag-img-module__Y5YJY dmnc_imag-img-module__pZHsv aspect-rat-ner-centered-f"/></div><figptn class="dmnc_imag-image-elements-module__ku669 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-10 mt-3 text-gray-medium">Demonstrators gather on the steps to the Texas Capol to speak agast transgenr-related legislatn bills nsired the Texas Senate and Texas Hoe May At.<span class="dmnc_imag-image-elements-module__7oO0P pl-1">(Eric Gay / ASSOCIATED PRESS)</span></figptn></figure><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__6c-b7 flex lg-down_flex-l"><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__iUvdA flex-grow lg-down_w-full lg-down_mb-4"><div class="dmnc_generic-byle-byle-module__TwYNy sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-10 text-gray-medium"><p><span class="">By <a class="dmnc_generic-byle-byle-module__oMvhi lk-blue unrle" href="/thor/polifact/">PoliFact</a></span></p><p>6:00 AM on Jul 17, 2023 CDT</p></div></div><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__6Ov1b lg-down_w-full"><div class="dmnc_generic-share-bar-share-bar-module__C7Mzo flex flex-l md_flex-row md_ems-center"><div class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__QPbOU flex flex-wrap mb-8"><button class="dmnc_featur-try-ai-social-button-try-button-module__SOTEf relative borr borr-blue flex 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class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__rH-K0 relative borr borr-gray-medium flex whpace-nowrap ems-center p-3 mr-3 my-1 hover_bg-gray-light transn-all" href="mailto:?; tle="Share via Email"><svg width="16" height="11" viewBox="0 0 16 11" xmlns=" fill="currentColor" class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__-UxPq in-le "><path d="M8.202 6.698L15.085.62c-.046-.007-.088-.028-.136-.028H1.452c-.03 0-.055.015-.083.018l6.833 6.087zM15.913 1.557a.95.95 0 00-.065-.323l-4.86 4.291 4.798 4.198a.954.954 0 00.127-.453V1.557zM.564 1.185a.957.957 0 00-.076.372V9.27c0 .14.034.272.088.392L5.42 5.51.564 1.185z"></path><path d="M10.26 6.167L8.2 7.986l-2.054-1.83-4.744 4.066c.017.002.032.012.05.012h13.454l-4.647-4.067z"></path></svg></a><a class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__rH-K0 relative borr borr-gray-medium flex whpace-nowrap ems-center p-3 mr-3 my-1 hover_bg-gray-light transn-all" href="()" tle="Prt"><svg fill="currentColor" class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__-UxPq in-le " width="15" height="15" viewBox="0 0 15 15" xmlns="><path d="M13.125 2.813V0H1.875v2.813H0v5.624h1.875v2.813L5.625 15h7.5V8.437H15V2.814h-1.875zM11.25 13.124H6.562v-2.813H3.75v-3.75h7.5v6.563zm0-10.313h-7.5v-.937h7.5v.938z"></path></svg></a></div></div></div></div><div class="dmnc_featur-try-ai-media-player-try-ai-module__XuKhb mb-4"><div class="tryAudPlaceholr"></div></div><div emProp="articleBody" class="body-text dmnc_featur-article-body-body-module__Ldbl- mb-8 false"><sectn><p class="body-text-paragraph">State legislators <a href=">troduced</a> hundreds of 2023 bills targetg transgenr Amerins and affectg accs to health re, tn policy and sports. To hear the polil disurse, sounds at tim as if the Uned Stat’ transgenr populatn is large, boomg and fluential.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“Trans iology is g after our children,” U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., <a href=">tweeted</a> July 11.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 hidn md_flex"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__hQ4DU flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-sktopInle1" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/sktopInle1" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Republin printial ndidate Vivek Ramaswamy misleadgly <a href=">scribed</a> beg transgenr as a “social ntagn” and a <a href=">mental illns</a> that is spreadg “like wildfire across this untry.”</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 md_hidn"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__h-NaF dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__u4HRm dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 md_hidn htlad-dfpPosn1_article" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn1_article" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">The Twter acunt <a href=">Gays Agast Groomers</a> alerted s 343,000 followers July 5 to a notable figure: “New data fds that there has been a 4000% spike stunts that intify as non-bary New Jersey.” Last year, reported another tweet <a href=">that a follower</a> said “40% of her child’s iends intify as non-bary or trans” and then emphasized the 40%.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__J4vZB dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__oPm-X flex flex-row pb-6 md_pb-9 mb-9 md_mb-7 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-20 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light pt-6 md_pt-9 mt-9 md_mt-7"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__LAPui mr-6 md_mr-8"><div class="lazyload-wrapper "><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__mWBjF"></div></div></div><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__nW1Im flex-to"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__3rR5T dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__li9kJ mb-4 sendaryBold sendaryBold-20">Breakg News</div><p class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__RhDsU mb-4">Get the latt breakg news om North Texas and beyond.</p><form><label for="subscribeEmail" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__cgbBU block mb-4 sendaryBoldCaps sendaryBoldCaps-20">Email Addrs</label><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__RJ-O5 flex flex-row flex-wrap gap-x-5"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__pIXRj flex flex-l w-full"><put type="email" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__sZ1DH py-4 px-4 w-full round" style="borr:1px solid #BBC1C4" value="" placeholr="Enter your email addrs" putid="subscribeEmail"/><p class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__nrih8 flex flex-wrap py-4 text-black sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-15 ntas-lk-blue-unrle">By signg up you agree to our <a class="lk-blue" href="/help/terms-of-service/">Terms of Service</a> and <a class="lk-blue" href="/help/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a></p></div><button type="subm" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__5iXsN btn btn-blue foc_borr-blue" disabled=""><span class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__DbaCN">SUBMIT</span></button></div></form></div></div><div><div class='s2nPlayer k-iEBoJZDZ' data-type='float'></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">But is the U.S. transgenr populatn really explodg? And what do data tell about how many trans people there are the U.S.?</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">In realy, current data shows that the number of people who intify as transgenr is very low: <a href=">between</a> <a href=">0.5%</a> and <a href=">1.6%</a> of Amerin adults, wh slightly higher numbers among young people. Yet when asked, people overtimate the number of trans people, wh <a href=">one survey</a> showg the public thks as many as 1 5 people — or 21% of the populatn — is transgenr.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__D24FM w-full mb-6 htlad-nativeArticleInle" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/nativeArticleInle" data-targetg="{"native":"nativeArticleInle","scroll":"1"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Psychologil quirks expla why humans nsistently overtimate mory populatns, but rearch suggts this flated perceptn uld lead to more prejudiced beliefs and uld shed light on the rise of anti-trans legislatn.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">So PoliFact explored — what are the real numbers, why do we get them wrong and why do matter?</p><h2 class="body-text-hear">Data shows the number of trans people is very low, slightly higher among young people</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph">Determg the number of transgenr people the U.S. is not simple. Until 2021, the <a href=">U.S. Cens Bure</a> didn’t ask about <a href=">sexual orientatn and genr inty</a>, so we lack large-sle mographic data. Instead, rearchers rely on survey data to timate the size of the transgenr populatn.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 md_hidn"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__YIHSg dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__u4HRm dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 md_hidn htlad-dfpPosn2_article" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn2_article" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">In <a href=">June 2022</a>, the Williams Instute, a public policy rearch stute at the UCLA School of Law, released s numbers. Williams drew om U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Preventn data and timated that 1.6 ln people, or 0.6% of Amerins ag 13 and olr intify as transgenr. Among adults, the percentage was lower — about 0.5%. And among youth 13-17, was 1.4%.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 hidn md_flex"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__-zD5N flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-sktopInle2" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/sktopInle2" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">Gallup</a>, a public opn pollg pany, found siar numbers s 2022 survey of 10,000 U.S. adults. Overall, about 0.6% intified as transgenr, wh higher numbers among young people: 1.9% of 18-25 year-olds.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The hight rat were reported by <a href=">Pew Rearch Center</a>, which found that 1.6% of 10,188 U.S. adults surveyed intified as transgenr or nonbary, meang they don’t intify as eher men or women. The rate was higher aga among young people, wh 2% of people ag 18-29 intifyg as transgenr men or women, and 3% intifyg as nonbary.</p><div data-oembed-type="raw-html" id="isolated-embed-CJZZ54QRSZCQFHOGL45TON6JGE"></div><div class=""><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__aJKMz hidn">Advertisement</div><div class="" id="teads-article-ad"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Experts shared that dispari between fdgs may be related to some of the quirks and challeng that e wh llectg data on genr inty.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">For example, the Williams Instute and Gallup both asked if people intified as transgenr. To some people, “transgenr” may clu anyone whose sex assigned at birth do not match their genr inty. But others who are nonbary may or may not nsir themselv transgenr and uld answer no to such a qutn. The current gold standard is a two-step approach, which clus one qutn about assigned sex at birth and another qutn about current genr inty, explaed Andrew Flor, Amerin Universy assistant profsor of ernment and a -thor of the Williams Instute report. This method, ed by Pew s 2022 rearch, ptur a wir range of diverse genr inti. The more expansive qutn may expla the larger numbers Pew found.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">But existg survey data g this two-step approach is limed, Flor said.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Conductg surveys on the topic of genr inty requir special nsiratns, experts said. For example, are people asked privately or publicly ont of fay? Are the qutns themselv unrstandable to people who have ls faiary wh LGBTQ issu? And who is sponsorg the survey?</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"1"}"></div></div><h2 class="body-text-hear">People overtimate number of trans people, psychology plays a role</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph">However you slice , the numbers are low. But ask folks how many transgenr people they <i>thk</i> there are the U.S., and the numbers are wildly out of the park.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">YouGov,</a> a U.K.-based pollg firm, asked 1,000 Amerins 2022 to timate the size of var mory groups. “If you had to gus, what percentage of Amerin adults are transgenr?” one of the qutns asked.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The average rponse was 21%, or 1 5 Amerins. This overtimate was not an outlier, as rponnts nsistently overtimated the size of other mory groups, gusg that 27% of people are Mlim (the realy is 1%), or that 41% of Amerins are Black (the realy is 12% to 13%).</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"2"}"></div></div><div data-oembed-type="raw-html" id="isolated-embed-I5JRJV52JRBNVJ5Z4HTBPGG64U"></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">A survey of 1,500 voters missned by <a href=">Newsweek</a> gave rponnts fewer optns: ls than 1%, 1-3%, 3-5% or greater than 5%. Rults showed that 61% of people thought more than 1% of people were transgenr, wh 39% of people thkg the proportn was greater than 3%.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The fdgs fall le wh <a href=">rearch</a> that shows people <a href=">nsistently overtimate</a> the size of mory groups. Experts said there are two big explanatns for this error.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“People are generally jt really bad at makg any sort of numeril timat,” said Mreen Craig, a De Universy associate rearch profsor of psychology and nroscience. This “numeracy” as is sometim lled, means that we tend to overtimate small numbers and unrtimate large numbers. This pattern n be seen the <a href=">YouGov poll</a> across all 43 qutns asked.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"3"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Bee mori are by fn small, we nsistently make overtimat. And the smaller the number, the worse we are at gusg, Craig said.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The other reason why we overtimate is that “our mds are built to notice everythg that is unmon or equent,” said Rasha Kardosh, a New York Universy postdoctoral fellow psychology. “People om the mory group are by fn ls equent, so our md has the tenncy to pick out their prence,” and remember seeg them.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">You may remember every person you’ve seen g a wheelchair. But “you tend not to thk about all the people who are not g a wheelchair,” said Bach Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon Universy profsor of engeerg and public policy. “So people are accurate at knowg what they’ve seen, but they tend to overtimate thgs bee they don’t factor all the s that we haven’t seen.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Flty timat rult om a batn of numeracy, as well as our bra’s tenncy to remember what and whom we nsir novel. For transgenr people, that mak for a “perfect storm,” Craig said. “It’s a really ty proportn of the populatn, and ’s the news.”</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"4"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">This means the public is likely to be thkg much more about transgenr people, a group they were already likely to overtimate.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The <a href=">overtimat</a> may jt be psychologil fl. In the YouGov poll, for example, survey signer and data journalist Taylor Orth said an email to PoliFact that Democrats and Republins were “roughly equally likely as one another to over- and unr-timate the size of different groups. This dit that misperceptns are not necsarily driven by polil inty and are likely a broar phenomenon rooted human psychology.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">But other rearch suggts that our mislculatns and perceptns of group size may shape our polil perspectiv.</p><h2 class="body-text-hear">How overtimat may be impactg polil views</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">Several </a><a href=">studi</a> have found a rrelatn between the <a href=">perceived</a> <a href=">size</a> of a mory group, and negative and adversarial attus about that group. This n lead to a person feelg threatened by a mory group that’s far smaller than thought. “Evince shows that people e the size of a group as a proxy for how powerful that group is,” Craig said.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"5"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Some experiments have found that <a href=">exposure</a> to <a href=">rmatn</a> about the growth of racial mory groups prompted more negative attus toward racial mori.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Experiments nducted by Craig and her lleagu have also shown that remdg people of the growth mory populatns n e some a majory populatn to exprs more <a href=">nservative</a> <a href="(1)">polil views.</a></p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Another experiment by <a href=">Kardosh</a> found that when participants overtimated the prevalence of Black stunts at a fictnal universy, they were ls likely to support polici promotg diversy. But, when participants were told the actual prevalence of Black stunts was 5%, people were more supportive of such polici.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Much of this rearch foc on racial mographic shifts, but we may be seeg a siar trend wh the LGBTQ populatn. Dpe more Amerins reportg that they personally know someone who is <a href=">transgenr</a> and who genr-ntral pronouns, appears the belief that genr is termed by <a href=">sex assigned at birth</a> is also risg, acrdg to surveys nducted by Pew. A <i>Washgton Post</i>-KFF poll also found that a majory of Amerins <a href=">support polici</a> that would lim accs to school sports and genr-affirmg medil re for transgenr youth.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"6"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">A year or two ago, most people may have given ltle thought to the topic of transgenr rights. But Craig said that by drawg attentn to this group, high-profile policy discsns and news verage may be feedg people’s outsized perceptns and sense of urgency over transgenr issu.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“It’s not jt that people are makg the timat and then reactg,” Craig said. “It’s also the polici that are beg proposed that make people thk about this as an issue.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph"><i>By </i><a href="><i>Grace Abels</i></a><i>, PoliFact staff wrer. 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class="dmnc_servic-theme-service-styl-flt-module__1fCbX lk-blue dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__Nsv0f le-block align-middle" href="/news/">news</a><svg xmlns=" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-lep="round" stroke-lejo="round" class="dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__MNwrx text-gray-medium in-le in-3"><path d="M9 18l6-6-6-6"></path></svg><a class="dmnc_servic-theme-service-styl-flt-module__1fCbX lk-blue dmnc_featur-article-hear-breadcmb-breadcmb-module__Nsv0f le-block align-middle" href="/news/polifact/">PoliFact</a></p><hgroup><h1 class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__pIlKM primaryBold primaryBold-60 md_primaryBold-80 mb-2"><span class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__i2K-Y mr-7">How many transgenr people are there the U.S.?</span></h1><h2 class="dmnc_generic-hear-hear-module__sF01k sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-30 md_sendaryRoman-40 text-gray-dark">PoliFact | Surveys show that when asked, people overtimate what percentage of the populatn is transgenr, along wh other mory groups.</h2></hgroup></div></div><sectn class="dmnc_layouts-ntent-right-rail-wh-gap-module__gezss row lg_jtify-between lg_flex-nowrap"><div class="dmnc_layouts-ntent-right-rail-wh-gap-module__sZ7QP lumn small-12 large-expand xlarge-8"><figure class="dmnc_imag-featured-image-module__ASEZV borr-b borr-gray-light pb-3 mb-9"><div class="ar-imgContaer-wir_830 ar-imgContaer dmnc_imag-img-module__l2vrE bg-gray-light dmnc_imag-img-module__2TzDj w-full"><img width="1660" height="934" alt="Demonstrators gather on the steps to the Texas Capol to speak agast transgenr-related..." src="()/" class="dmnc_imag-img-module__-o1u- max-w-full text-whe object-nta dmnc_imag-img-module__Y5YJY dmnc_imag-img-module__pZHsv aspect-rat-ner-centered-f"/></div><figptn class="dmnc_imag-image-elements-module__ku669 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-10 mt-3 text-gray-medium">Demonstrators gather on the steps to the Texas Capol to speak agast transgenr-related legislatn bills nsired the Texas Senate and Texas Hoe May At.<span class="dmnc_imag-image-elements-module__7oO0P pl-1">(Eric Gay / ASSOCIATED PRESS)</span></figptn></figure><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__6c-b7 flex lg-down_flex-l"><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__iUvdA flex-grow lg-down_w-full lg-down_mb-4"><div class="dmnc_generic-byle-byle-module__TwYNy sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-10 text-gray-medium"><p><span class="">By <a class="dmnc_generic-byle-byle-module__oMvhi lk-blue unrle" href="/thor/polifact/">PoliFact</a></span></p><p>6:00 AM on Jul 17, 2023 CDT</p></div></div><div class="dmnc_chas-article-top-article-top-module__6Ov1b lg-down_w-full"><div class="dmnc_generic-share-bar-share-bar-module__C7Mzo flex flex-l md_flex-row md_ems-center"><div class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__QPbOU flex flex-wrap mb-8"><button class="dmnc_featur-try-ai-social-button-try-button-module__SOTEf relative borr borr-blue flex 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class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__rH-K0 relative borr borr-gray-medium flex whpace-nowrap ems-center p-3 mr-3 my-1 hover_bg-gray-light transn-all" href="mailto:?; tle="Share via Email"><svg width="16" height="11" viewBox="0 0 16 11" xmlns=" fill="currentColor" class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__-UxPq in-le "><path d="M8.202 6.698L15.085.62c-.046-.007-.088-.028-.136-.028H1.452c-.03 0-.055.015-.083.018l6.833 6.087zM15.913 1.557a.95.95 0 00-.065-.323l-4.86 4.291 4.798 4.198a.954.954 0 00.127-.453V1.557zM.564 1.185a.957.957 0 00-.076.372V9.27c0 .14.034.272.088.392L5.42 5.51.564 1.185z"></path><path d="M10.26 6.167L8.2 7.986l-2.054-1.83-4.744 4.066c.017.002.032.012.05.012h13.454l-4.647-4.067z"></path></svg></a><a class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__rH-K0 relative borr borr-gray-medium flex whpace-nowrap ems-center p-3 mr-3 my-1 hover_bg-gray-light transn-all" href="()" tle="Prt"><svg fill="currentColor" class="dmnc_social-ins-social-ins-module__-UxPq in-le " width="15" height="15" viewBox="0 0 15 15" xmlns="><path d="M13.125 2.813V0H1.875v2.813H0v5.624h1.875v2.813L5.625 15h7.5V8.437H15V2.814h-1.875zM11.25 13.124H6.562v-2.813H3.75v-3.75h7.5v6.563zm0-10.313h-7.5v-.937h7.5v.938z"></path></svg></a></div></div></div></div><div class="dmnc_featur-try-ai-media-player-try-ai-module__XuKhb mb-4"><div class="tryAudPlaceholr"></div></div><div emProp="articleBody" class="body-text dmnc_featur-article-body-body-module__Ldbl- mb-8 false"><sectn><p class="body-text-paragraph">State legislators <a href=">troduced</a> hundreds of 2023 bills targetg transgenr Amerins and affectg accs to health re, tn policy and sports. To hear the polil disurse, sounds at tim as if the Uned Stat’ transgenr populatn is large, boomg and fluential.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“Trans iology is g after our children,” U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., <a href=">tweeted</a> July 11.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 hidn md_flex"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__hQ4DU flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-sktopInle1" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/sktopInle1" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Republin printial ndidate Vivek Ramaswamy misleadgly <a href=">scribed</a> beg transgenr as a “social ntagn” and a <a href=">mental illns</a> that is spreadg “like wildfire across this untry.”</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 md_hidn"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__h-NaF dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__u4HRm dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 md_hidn htlad-dfpPosn1_article" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn1_article" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">The Twter acunt <a href=">Gays Agast Groomers</a> alerted s 343,000 followers July 5 to a notable figure: “New data fds that there has been a 4000% spike stunts that intify as non-bary New Jersey.” Last year, reported another tweet <a href=">that a follower</a> said “40% of her child’s iends intify as non-bary or trans” and then emphasized the 40%.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__J4vZB dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__oPm-X flex flex-row pb-6 md_pb-9 mb-9 md_mb-7 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-20 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light pt-6 md_pt-9 mt-9 md_mt-7"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__LAPui mr-6 md_mr-8"><div class="lazyload-wrapper "><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__mWBjF"></div></div></div><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__nW1Im flex-to"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__3rR5T dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__li9kJ mb-4 sendaryBold sendaryBold-20">Breakg News</div><p class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__RhDsU mb-4">Get the latt breakg news om North Texas and beyond.</p><form><label for="subscribeEmail" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__cgbBU block mb-4 sendaryBoldCaps sendaryBoldCaps-20">Email Addrs</label><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__RJ-O5 flex flex-row flex-wrap gap-x-5"><div class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__pIXRj flex flex-l w-full"><put type="email" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__sZ1DH py-4 px-4 w-full round" style="borr:1px solid #BBC1C4" value="" placeholr="Enter your email addrs" putid="subscribeEmail"/><p class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__nrih8 flex flex-wrap py-4 text-black sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-15 ntas-lk-blue-unrle">By signg up you agree to our <a class="lk-blue" href="/help/terms-of-service/">Terms of Service</a> and <a class="lk-blue" href="/help/privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a></p></div><button type="subm" class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__5iXsN btn btn-blue foc_borr-blue" disabled=""><span class="dmnc_featur-cta-newsletter-cta-newsletter-module__DbaCN">SUBMIT</span></button></div></form></div></div><div><div class='s2nPlayer k-iEBoJZDZ' data-type='float'></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">But is the U.S. transgenr populatn really explodg? And what do data tell about how many trans people there are the U.S.?</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">In realy, current data shows that the number of people who intify as transgenr is very low: <a href=">between</a> <a href=">0.5%</a> and <a href=">1.6%</a> of Amerin adults, wh slightly higher numbers among young people. Yet when asked, people overtimate the number of trans people, wh <a href=">one survey</a> showg the public thks as many as 1 5 people — or 21% of the populatn — is transgenr.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__D24FM w-full mb-6 htlad-nativeArticleInle" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/nativeArticleInle" data-targetg="{"native":"nativeArticleInle","scroll":"1"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Psychologil quirks expla why humans nsistently overtimate mory populatns, but rearch suggts this flated perceptn uld lead to more prejudiced beliefs and uld shed light on the rise of anti-trans legislatn.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">So PoliFact explored — what are the real numbers, why do we get them wrong and why do matter?</p><h2 class="body-text-hear">Data shows the number of trans people is very low, slightly higher among young people</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph">Determg the number of transgenr people the U.S. is not simple. Until 2021, the <a href=">U.S. Cens Bure</a> didn’t ask about <a href=">sexual orientatn and genr inty</a>, so we lack large-sle mographic data. Instead, rearchers rely on survey data to timate the size of the transgenr populatn.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 md_hidn"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__YIHSg dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__u4HRm dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 md_hidn htlad-dfpPosn2_article" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn2_article" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">In <a href=">June 2022</a>, the Williams Instute, a public policy rearch stute at the UCLA School of Law, released s numbers. Williams drew om U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Preventn data and timated that 1.6 ln people, or 0.6% of Amerins ag 13 and olr intify as transgenr. Among adults, the percentage was lower — about 0.5%. And among youth 13-17, was 1.4%.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6 hidn md_flex"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__-zD5N flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-sktopInle2" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/sktopInle2" data-targetg="{}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">Gallup</a>, a public opn pollg pany, found siar numbers s 2022 survey of 10,000 U.S. adults. Overall, about 0.6% intified as transgenr, wh higher numbers among young people: 1.9% of 18-25 year-olds.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The hight rat were reported by <a href=">Pew Rearch Center</a>, which found that 1.6% of 10,188 U.S. adults surveyed intified as transgenr or nonbary, meang they don’t intify as eher men or women. The rate was higher aga among young people, wh 2% of people ag 18-29 intifyg as transgenr men or women, and 3% intifyg as nonbary.</p><div data-oembed-type="raw-html" id="isolated-embed-CJZZ54QRSZCQFHOGL45TON6JGE"></div><div class=""><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__aJKMz hidn">Advertisement</div><div class="" id="teads-article-ad"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Experts shared that dispari between fdgs may be related to some of the quirks and challeng that e wh llectg data on genr inty.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">For example, the Williams Instute and Gallup both asked if people intified as transgenr. To some people, “transgenr” may clu anyone whose sex assigned at birth do not match their genr inty. But others who are nonbary may or may not nsir themselv transgenr and uld answer no to such a qutn. The current gold standard is a two-step approach, which clus one qutn about assigned sex at birth and another qutn about current genr inty, explaed Andrew Flor, Amerin Universy assistant profsor of ernment and a -thor of the Williams Instute report. This method, ed by Pew s 2022 rearch, ptur a wir range of diverse genr inti. The more expansive qutn may expla the larger numbers Pew found.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">But existg survey data g this two-step approach is limed, Flor said.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Conductg surveys on the topic of genr inty requir special nsiratns, experts said. For example, are people asked privately or publicly ont of fay? Are the qutns themselv unrstandable to people who have ls faiary wh LGBTQ issu? And who is sponsorg the survey?</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"1"}"></div></div><h2 class="body-text-hear">People overtimate number of trans people, psychology plays a role</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph">However you slice , the numbers are low. But ask folks how many transgenr people they <i>thk</i> there are the U.S., and the numbers are wildly out of the park.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">YouGov,</a> a U.K.-based pollg firm, asked 1,000 Amerins 2022 to timate the size of var mory groups. “If you had to gus, what percentage of Amerin adults are transgenr?” one of the qutns asked.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The average rponse was 21%, or 1 5 Amerins. This overtimate was not an outlier, as rponnts nsistently overtimated the size of other mory groups, gusg that 27% of people are Mlim (the realy is 1%), or that 41% of Amerins are Black (the realy is 12% to 13%).</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"2"}"></div></div><div data-oembed-type="raw-html" id="isolated-embed-I5JRJV52JRBNVJ5Z4HTBPGG64U"></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">A survey of 1,500 voters missned by <a href=">Newsweek</a> gave rponnts fewer optns: ls than 1%, 1-3%, 3-5% or greater than 5%. Rults showed that 61% of people thought more than 1% of people were transgenr, wh 39% of people thkg the proportn was greater than 3%.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The fdgs fall le wh <a href=">rearch</a> that shows people <a href=">nsistently overtimate</a> the size of mory groups. Experts said there are two big explanatns for this error.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“People are generally jt really bad at makg any sort of numeril timat,” said Mreen Craig, a De Universy associate rearch profsor of psychology and nroscience. This “numeracy” as is sometim lled, means that we tend to overtimate small numbers and unrtimate large numbers. This pattern n be seen the <a href=">YouGov poll</a> across all 43 qutns asked.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"3"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Bee mori are by fn small, we nsistently make overtimat. And the smaller the number, the worse we are at gusg, Craig said.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The other reason why we overtimate is that “our mds are built to notice everythg that is unmon or equent,” said Rasha Kardosh, a New York Universy postdoctoral fellow psychology. “People om the mory group are by fn ls equent, so our md has the tenncy to pick out their prence,” and remember seeg them.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">You may remember every person you’ve seen g a wheelchair. But “you tend not to thk about all the people who are not g a wheelchair,” said Bach Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon Universy profsor of engeerg and public policy. “So people are accurate at knowg what they’ve seen, but they tend to overtimate thgs bee they don’t factor all the s that we haven’t seen.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Flty timat rult om a batn of numeracy, as well as our bra’s tenncy to remember what and whom we nsir novel. For transgenr people, that mak for a “perfect storm,” Craig said. “It’s a really ty proportn of the populatn, and ’s the news.”</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"4"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">This means the public is likely to be thkg much more about transgenr people, a group they were already likely to overtimate.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">The <a href=">overtimat</a> may jt be psychologil fl. In the YouGov poll, for example, survey signer and data journalist Taylor Orth said an email to PoliFact that Democrats and Republins were “roughly equally likely as one another to over- and unr-timate the size of different groups. This dit that misperceptns are not necsarily driven by polil inty and are likely a broar phenomenon rooted human psychology.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">But other rearch suggts that our mislculatns and perceptns of group size may shape our polil perspectiv.</p><h2 class="body-text-hear">How overtimat may be impactg polil views</h2><p class="body-text-paragraph"><a href=">Several </a><a href=">studi</a> have found a rrelatn between the <a href=">perceived</a> <a href=">size</a> of a mory group, and negative and adversarial attus about that group. This n lead to a person feelg threatened by a mory group that’s far smaller than thought. “Evince shows that people e the size of a group as a proxy for how powerful that group is,” Craig said.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"5"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">Some experiments have found that <a href=">exposure</a> to <a href=">rmatn</a> about the growth of racial mory groups prompted more negative attus toward racial mori.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Experiments nducted by Craig and her lleagu have also shown that remdg people of the growth mory populatns n e some a majory populatn to exprs more <a href=">nservative</a> <a href="(1)">polil views.</a></p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Another experiment by <a href=">Kardosh</a> found that when participants overtimated the prevalence of Black stunts at a fictnal universy, they were ls likely to support polici promotg diversy. But, when participants were told the actual prevalence of Black stunts was 5%, people were more supportive of such polici.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">Much of this rearch foc on racial mographic shifts, but we may be seeg a siar trend wh the LGBTQ populatn. Dpe more Amerins reportg that they personally know someone who is <a href=">transgenr</a> and who genr-ntral pronouns, appears the belief that genr is termed by <a href=">sex assigned at birth</a> is also risg, acrdg to surveys nducted by Pew. A <i>Washgton Post</i>-KFF poll also found that a majory of Amerins <a href=">support polici</a> that would lim accs to school sports and genr-affirmg medil re for transgenr youth.</p><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__cOFTB flex flex-l ems-center dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__xNWY5 borr-t borr-b borr-gray-light mb-6"><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-arc-ad-_children-ad-wrapper-module__3Ge73 upperse py-4 sendaryRoman sendaryRoman-9 text-gray-dark">Advertisement</div><div class="dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__Z-JdA dmnc_featur-ads-nfig-prets-module__N2M5T flex ems-center jtify-center mb-6 htlad-dfpPosn" data-un="dmn/news/polifact/article/dfpPosn" data-targetg="{"scroll":"6"}"></div></div><p class="body-text-paragraph">A year or two ago, most people may have given ltle thought to the topic of transgenr rights. But Craig said that by drawg attentn to this group, high-profile policy discsns and news verage may be feedg people’s outsized perceptns and sense of urgency over transgenr issu.</p><p class="body-text-paragraph">“It’s not jt that people are makg the timat and then reactg,” Craig said. “It’s also the polici that are beg proposed that make people thk about this as an issue.”</p><p class="body-text-paragraph"><i>By </i><a href="><i>Grace Abels</i></a><i>, PoliFact staff wrer. 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