The Court uld have thrown a polil roadblock the march to gay marriage. It didn't.
Contents:
- ROB PORTMAN AND THE END OF THE GAY MARRIAGE BATE
- SUPREME COURT PROVIS POLIL MOMENTUM FOR GAY MARRIAGE ADVOT
- THE ABSOLUTELY STUNNG RISE SUPPORT FOR GAY MARRIAGE, 1 CHART
ROB PORTMAN AND THE END OF THE GAY MARRIAGE BATE
Don't expect to hear amb Republins talkg much about their opposn to gay marriage 2016. * is chris cillizza gay *
Is Chris Cillizza Gay? The Supreme Court will hear two landmark s on gay marriage this week that have the potential to rhape how the untry f one of s most sacred stutns. But, no matter how the high urt l later this year on California’s Proposn 8 and the Defense of Marriage Act, one thg is already clear: The polil bate over gay marriage is over.
Rob Portman (R-Oh), a falist to serve as Mt Romney’s vice printial nomee 2012, announced last week that he was reversg urse and would now support the right of gay men and lbians to marry. (Portman said his cisn was fluenced by his son, Will, who is gay.
In a Washgton Post-ABC poll released last week, nearly six 10 Amerins said they support the legalizatn of gay marriage. It’s no secret that the issue divis strongly along generatnal l, wh 80 percent of those ag 18 to 29 supportive of gay marriage, pared wh 44 percent of those olr than 65. In the Post-ABC survey, a slim majory of Republins and GOP-leang pennts younger than 50 now support gay marriage.
SUPREME COURT PROVIS POLIL MOMENTUM FOR GAY MARRIAGE ADVOT
Nearly seven 10 of those age 65 and olr oppose , but that number was more than eight 10 as recently as, ’s not simply the fact that young people are strongly supportive of allowg gay people to marry that means the polil fight on same-sex marriage is over. After all, there is the possibily that as young people age, they might grow ls amenable to the fact, acrdg to Natnal Opn Rearch Center data gog back to 1988, each generatn has grown more supportive of gay marriage as has aged. Jt 25 percent of baby boomers backed legalizg gay marriage 2004, but that number had risen to 43 percent 2012.
Dto Gen X’ers — 37 percent of whom backed gay marriage 2004 and 53 percent who said the same ’s not jt natnal surveys where the shift is evint. )All of the above is not to say that the Republin Party will shift s broadly held opposn to gay marriage — at least any time soon.
“I n’t image that posn would ever change, ” Hoe Speaker John Boehner (R-Oh) said last Sunday when asked about the possibily of swchg to support gay marriage. ”To date, hasn’t; 21 percent of self-intified Republins supported gay marriage 2001 while 25 percent supported 2012, acrdg to Pew Rearch Center data. Outsi of Republin primary fights, gay marriage will disappear om the natnal polil dialogue as an issue.
THE ABSOLUTELY STUNNG RISE SUPPORT FOR GAY MARRIAGE, 1 CHART
Rob Portman's announcement that he had cid to give up his opposn to gay marriage -- a cisn prompted, at least part, by the fact that one of his sons is gay -- is the latt a seri of mov that make one thg crystal clear: The polil bate on gay marriage is effectively over. That someone wh his profile -- his own personal circumstanc notwhstandg -- would reverse posns such a high-profile way tells you much about how the polics of the issue are 's not to say that allowg gay people to get married will sudnly bee the flt posn of the Republin party. In fact, pollg suggts that while the untry wr large is growg more and more tolerant of gay marriage, Republin voters aren' simply bee Portman and some other high-profile figur -- cludg Print Obama -- have changed their mds on the issue don't mean that the party as a whole will follow their lead.
Portman has always been known as a fisl nservative only loosely ncerned wh social issu like marriage and abortn, and so his announcement isn't likely to have major ripple effects among social nservativ the gay marriage issue do appear to be on a trajectory siar to the gun issue for Democrats om the mid 1990s all the way up to the recent spate of mass shootgs that culmated Newtown, Conn., late last the mid 1990s, Democratic lears -- up to and cludg Bill Clton -- simply stopped talkg about guns and gun ntrol. A look at gay marriage pollg broken down by party intifitn suggts somethg siar is likely to happen on this issue for fact that 54 percent of Republins strongly oppose gay marriage means that the party won't be changg s official posn on the issue any time soon. And we would bet that most of the ontnners for the 2016 printial nomatn won't follow Portman's lead g out support of gay, what almost certaly will happen is that the lik of Florida Sen.