Author Page for Michael Gayed :: SSRN

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Michael Gayed says he’s not tryg to sre anyone, but you wouldn’t know by his latt market outlook.

Contents:

WHY MICHAEL GAYED THKS WE'RE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET

Wele to the Lead-Lag Live podst, where we brg you live unscripted nversatns wh thought lears the world of fance, enomics, and vtg. Hosted through Twter Spac by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (@leadlagreport), each episo div ep to the m… * michael gayed twitter *

Gayed, CFA, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (@leadlagreport), each episo div ep to the mds of dtry experts to discs current market trends, vtment strategi, and the global enomic this excg seri, you'll have the rare opportuny to jo Michael A.

Gayed as he nnects wh proment thought lears for ptivatg discsns real-time. Thank you Michael Gayed! Michael Gayed ns The Lead Lag Report and jos to discs the macro picture and what sectors, ETFs and stocks make sense for vtors.

7:20 - The Fed is a follower of the bond market; treasuri will dictate 9:40 - How to classify a bull and bear market 15:20 - Nvidia and gettg perspective on the tech sector 22:40 - Internatnal portfol allotn - what to keep md 30:55 - Gold as the ultimate diversifier Free trial to The Lead-Lag Report Transcript Rena Sherbill: Michael Gayed ns the vtg group The Lead-Lag Report and manag a portfol outsi of Seekg Alpha; on Seekg Alpha, he shar salient analysis wh . Michael Gayed: Salient is a good word.

MICHAEL GAYED IS GROWG FAMO ON WALL STREET FOR HIS VIEWS ON THE POWER OF LUMBER PRIC. HE TOLD WHY THEY MIGHT STILL HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL — AND WHY 'S A WARNG SIGN FOR MUCH MORE THAN THE HOG MARKET.

Michael Gayed ns The Lead Lag Report and jos to discs the macro picture and what sectors, ETFs and stocks make sense for vtors." data-renr="ssr * michael gayed twitter *

Gayed, CFA's Articl | Seekg Alpha.

Michael Gayed says he’s not tryg to sre anyone, but you wouldn’t know om his latt take. “It is a wild time the markets, ” said Gayed, who also ns the Lead-Lag Report.

MICHAEL GAYED

* michael gayed twitter *

After havg been bullish near the March bottom, Gayed now says that leadg market ditors uld very well be signallg a “severe llapse” stocks.

“It’s often said that bond-market vtors are the smart money and tend to lead the stock market anticipatg enomic activy, ” Gayed explaed. ” Lastly, placency uld bee a ser issue, wh Gayed potg to several factors, cludg the wild recent tradg antics of Robhood trars.

Wele to the Lead-Lag Live podst, where we brg you live unscripted nversatns wh thought lears the world of fance, enomics, and vtg. Hosted through Twter Spac by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (@leadlagreport), each episo div ep to th... * michael gayed twitter *

Michael Gayed says the S&P 500 uld return to s Febary 2020 highs. Michael Gayed, a portfol manager at Toroso Asset Management, lls the current state of the market, "a very treachero environment" and one that we haven't really seen before, maly bee there's nowhere to hi. "All three of my funds have gotten h this year bee they're all predited on this ia that Treasuri act as the risk-off assets, " Gayed said.

Year-to-date, Gayed's ATAC Rotatn Fund that swch between small-ps, large-ps, emergg markets, and Treasuri based on market ndns, is down over 15%. Gayed was begng to work up a sweat until two weeks ago, when the downtrend on Treasuri reversed. Gayed believ that bond vtors may have seen the light and e to the ncln that their long-term fear is ls om flatn and more om flatn.

However, flatnary shocks are herently flatnary, Gayed said.

The crash uld sk the S&P 500 to s pre-Covid high, Michael Gayed says. He also believ we're headg to a flatnary environment. * michael gayed twitter *

All this is gog to be ultimately very, very negative for the enomy, " Gayed said. In the last two weeks, we've wnsed vtors move towards long-duratn Treasuri, Gayed noted. This means there uld be another big wave of drops equi, particular, the large-p averag such as the S&P 500 and the you're trekkg down a steep slope, you don't rece, you crash Gayed's fn of a crash is not about the percentage cle but rather how far back time you go.

For example, the stock market crash of 1987, also known as Black Monday, shaved ne months of performance off the Dow while the COVID crash of March 2020 took the stock market back by about 14-15 months, Gayed noted.

In ncln, the risk is no longer a recsn but rather an abpt asked which asset class was most leveraged, Gayed rpond that 's unequivolly crypto. That's not a predictn, " Gayed still believe that this is jt a n-of-the-l rrectn and a juncture to buy the dip. Gayed believ that this don't end until you break that psychology.

Michael Gayed shar how vtors n intify the environments that are more likely to generate posive returns. * michael gayed twitter *

It's all risky "Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears bee bear markets, 's volatile a very aggrsive way, both ways, " Gayed general, there's no such thg as a store of value or safety and right now, even sh is gettg h wh flatn, he noted.

Gayed's only hope is that Treasuri ntue to act unter to equi, beg a good haven for a moment time. The problem is that most people won't posn their money long-duratn Treasuri bee they don't unrstand the reasong behd , Gayed said.

"I built my funds around that entire premise, which is proven history that Treasuri are historilly your bt and most nsistent risk-off safe haven and play, " Gayed said. Michael Gayed is the portfol manager of the $287. In a live webar on Sunday, Gayed prented his award-wng whe paper "Leverage For The Long Run, " which he teach vtors to pntly e leverage to magnify returns.

Fund manager and thor Michael Gayed says lumber uld have much farther to fall as flatn fears shake up the stock market. * michael gayed twitter *

Given his fdgs, Gayed veloped a strategy to e leverage when the market is above s movg average and leverage by movg to Treasury bills when the market is below s movg average. But Michael Gayed, a portfol manager at Toroso Invtments, says leverage n be properly ed as long as vtors intify the right ndns for .

Gayed manag the $287. This is what Gayed lls the "stctural lims" for stutns to lever up and take more risks to get more returns. "If leverage aversn is not ratnal bee of stctural efficienci, bee stutns are told not to lever, and bee of behavral aspects which make people aaid to lever, " Gayed said, "then maybe, if you're tactil, you n take advantage of leverage if you're not burned by stcture, if you're not burned by memori.

The tool and the strategy To intify such ndns a systematic fashn, Gayed is g movg averag, which should not be thought of as "anythg wildly plited" by vtors but rather a way to "smooth out returns, " he said. "Havg tablished the ndns for leveraged vtg and the tool to intify such ndns, Gayed summed up his tradg strategy as such: "When the S&P 500 clos above the movg average, rotate to the S&P 500 and e leverage to magnify returns. Michael Gayed of Toroso Invtments is gag fame for toutg lumber as a powerful ditor.

*BEAR-MAGAZINE.COM* MICHAEL GAYED TWITTER

Author Page for Michael Gayed :: SSRN.

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