Author Page for Michael Gayed :: SSRN

Contents:

• WHY MICHAEL GAYED THKS WE'RE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET
• MICHAEL GAYED IS GROWG FAMO ON WALL STREET FOR HIS VIEWS ON THE POWER OF LUMBER PRIC. HE TOLD WHY THEY MIGHT STILL HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL — AND WHY 'S A WARNG SIGN FOR MUCH MORE THAN THE HOG MARKET.
• MICHAEL GAYED

WHY MICHAEL GAYED THKS WE'RE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET

Gayed, CFA, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (@leadlagreport), each episo div ep to the mds of dtry experts to discs current market trends, vtment strategi, and the global enomic this excg seri, you'll have the rare opportuny to jo Michael A. Gayed as he nnects wh proment thought lears for ptivatg discsns real-time.

Thank you Michael Gayed!

Michael Gayed ns The Lead Lag Report and jos to discs the macro picture and what sectors, ETFs and stocks make sense for vtors.

MICHAEL GAYED IS GROWG FAMO ON WALL STREET FOR HIS VIEWS ON THE POWER OF LUMBER PRIC. HE TOLD WHY THEY MIGHT STILL HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL — AND WHY 'S A WARNG SIGN FOR MUCH MORE THAN THE HOG MARKET.

7:20 - The Fed is a follower of the bond market; treasuri will dictate 9:40 - How to classify a bull and bear market 15:20 - Nvidia and gettg perspective on the tech sector 22:40 - Internatnal portfol allotn - what to keep md 30:55 - Gold as the ultimate diversifier Free trial to The Lead-Lag Report Transcript Rena Sherbill: Michael Gayed ns the vtg group The Lead-Lag Report and manag a portfol outsi of Seekg Alpha; on Seekg Alpha, he shar salient analysis wh . Michael Gayed: Salient is a good word. Gayed, CFA's Articl | Seekg Alpha.

Michael Gayed says he’s not tryg to sre anyone, but you wouldn’t know om his latt take. “It is a wild time the markets, ” said Gayed, who also ns the Lead-Lag Report.

MICHAEL GAYED

After havg been bullish near the March bottom, Gayed now says that leadg market ditors uld very well be signallg a “severe llapse” stocks.

“It’s often said that bond-market vtors are the smart money and tend to lead the stock market anticipatg enomic activy, ” Gayed explaed. ” Lastly, placency uld bee a ser issue, wh Gayed potg to several factors, cludg the wild recent tradg antics of Robhood trars.

Michael Gayed says the S&P 500 uld return to s Febary 2020 highs.

Michael Gayed, a portfol manager at Toroso Asset Management, lls the current state of the market, "a very treachero environment" and one that we haven't really seen before, maly bee there's nowhere to hi. "All three of my funds have gotten h this year bee they're all predited on this ia that Treasuri act as the risk-off assets, " Gayed said. Year-to-date, Gayed's ATAC Rotatn Fund that swch between small-ps, large-ps, emergg markets, and Treasuri based on market ndns, is down over 15%.

Gayed was begng to work up a sweat until two weeks ago, when the downtrend on Treasuri reversed. Gayed believ that bond vtors may have seen the light and e to the ncln that their long-term fear is ls om flatn and more om flatn. However, flatnary shocks are herently flatnary, Gayed said.

All this is gog to be ultimately very, very negative for the enomy, " Gayed said.

In the last two weeks, we've wnsed vtors move towards long-duratn Treasuri, Gayed noted. This means there uld be another big wave of drops equi, particular, the large-p averag such as the S&P 500 and the you're trekkg down a steep slope, you don't rece, you crash Gayed's fn of a crash is not about the percentage cle but rather how far back time you go. For example, the stock market crash of 1987, also known as Black Monday, shaved ne months of performance off the Dow while the COVID crash of March 2020 took the stock market back by about 14-15 months, Gayed noted.

In ncln, the risk is no longer a recsn but rather an abpt asked which asset class was most leveraged, Gayed rpond that 's unequivolly crypto. That's not a predictn, " Gayed still believe that this is jt a n-of-the-l rrectn and a juncture to buy the dip. Gayed believ that this don't end until you break that psychology.

It's all risky "Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears bee bear markets, 's volatile a very aggrsive way, both ways, " Gayed general, there's no such thg as a store of value or safety and right now, even sh is gettg h wh flatn, he noted. Gayed's only hope is that Treasuri ntue to act unter to equi, beg a good haven for a moment time.

The problem is that most people won't posn their money long-duratn Treasuri bee they don't unrstand the reasong behd , Gayed said.

"I built my funds around that entire premise, which is proven history that Treasuri are historilly your bt and most nsistent risk-off safe haven and play, " Gayed said.

Michael Gayed is the portfol manager of the $287.